Compare Kalshi and Polymarket Odds in Real Time

Learn how to compare matching Kalshi and Polymarket odds in real time, verify settlement rules, track price gaps, and assess whether a difference is meaningful.

Learn how random sampling, sample size, and representative samples work through 15 seeded samples of 383,707 historical Polymarket markets.

Learn what volume means on Kalshi, how trading volume works, why it matters, and how to analyze Kalshi market activity using historical volume charts.

Are prediction markets accurate? We analyzed 3,195 resolved Kalshi political prediction markets across 25,552 lifecycle snapshots to measure when market odds become reliable.

We analyzed resolved Kalshi political markets to test whether 90–100% prediction markets are overconfident. The data showed high-probability markets were reliable, while the middle probability range was sparse and noisy.

Step-by-step guide to calculating and visualizing volatility in Kalshi weather markets using historical trade data and no-code analysis in Lychee.